- Minnesota Timberwolves-Anthony Edwards
The 19 year old former Georgia Bulldog weighs in at a chiseled 225 pounds at 6’5 with plenty of quickness. Edwards led the Bulldogs in scoring averaging just over 19 points per game and also added 5.2 rebounds and 2.8 assists per game. Edwards had some of his best performances against his toughest competition like his 37 point 6 rebound 4 steal effort against Michigan State in a closely contested loss in the Maui Invitational and a 32 point 6 rebound 3 steal effort at Florida.
With this being said, Edwards needs to improve his shot selection as he takes far too many off balance 3’s as only a 29.5% three point shooter in college. Edwards needs to use his physical gifts to get downhill to the rim in the halfcourt as he settled for too many ill-advised shots in the mid range as well. Edwards did this well in transition ranking in the 81st percentile via Synergy which makes him a great fit for Minnesota as they ranked 4th in the NBA in pace this year. He also exceeded expectations in isolation ranking in the 72nd percentile per Synergy while often being double or triple teamed. In addition, Edwards looked very good off the ball for a star as he finished in the 72nd percentile on cuts and regularly created driving lanes for his teammates with his off ball movement.
This pick also makes sense for Minnesota with their current roster makeup as they likely lose both Evan Turner and Malik Beasley and would like to pair D’angelo Russell with a star off-ball guard. While Edwards is not a great defender yet and tends to lose his man in help defense, his active hands netted him 1.3 steals a game which should help bolster a struggling Minnesota defense who ranked 21st in defensive rating while losing Defensive Star Robert Covington mid season. Lastly, the Timberwolves need a body that is NBA ready in Edwards due to the fact that they will lose their first round pick to Golden State next year if they do not make the playoffs.
2. Golden State Warriors-James Wiseman
Wiseman topped his High School Class’ recruiting rankings and is thought to be potentially the next physically unmatched specimen of an NBA Center similar to DeAndre Ayton, Kristaps Porzingis, or Karl Anthony Towns. If drafted at or before 2018, Wiseman would likely be number one overall, but the decreased valuation of the center position in the NBA hurt his draft stock. So too did only playing in three games for the Memphis Tigers.
Still, Wiseman was dominant while he was on the court, including in a game against the top team in the Pac-12: Oregon. It’s hard to take much stock in his numbers, but he posted an impressive 19.7 points, 10.7 rebounds, and 3.0 blocks in just 23.0 minutes per game while shooting 70.4% from the field. The talent is there. Wiseman already showed in the 3 games that his jump shot outside of the paint is to be respected, that he can hit runners, and that defensively he knows his responsibilities with regards to protecting the rim.
The next steps in his development are playing more in control, taking better shots, and improving his footwork mechanics for when he’s inevitably switching onto guards in the pick and roll heavy NBA.
Golden State is an ideal fit for Wiseman, because his development will be most organic in the Bay. The team is returning starters Stephen Curry, Klay Thompson, Andrew Wiggins, and Draymond Green: a core sans Wiggins that delivered five straight NBA Finals appearances and three championships. Wiseman not only fits positionally, but stylistically is an ideal complement to the shorter and aging Green who operates best out of the paint. Curry, Thompson, and Wiggins will all benefit from having a legitimate lob and above the rim threat to keep defenses balanced and honest from launching an all-out perimeter attack on the Warriors back court.
Even in the event the pick is subsequently traded, while other teams might value certain available prospects over Wiseman, Wiseman’s physical tools and line-up fit offer arguably the best universal trade value and trade negotiating leverage, respectively.
3. Charlotte Hornets-Lamelo Ball
LaMelo Ball is a unique prospect as a 6’7” do-it-all point guard. These taller point guards have highly variant floors and ceilings. Ever heard of two guys named Michael Carter-Williams and Magic Johnson? Further complicating the attempt to value Ball is his great box score statistical volume (17.0 points, 7.6 rebounds, 6.8 assists, and 1.6 steals per game) on poor efficiency (37.5% from the field and 25.0% from three). Playing in a foreign professional league as a teenager should be a point in his favor, but his team being the joke of NBL Australia at 5-23 is not.
Many have Edwards, Wiseman, and Ball in a tier of their own among the 2020 draft prospects, so he is the clear choice here. He did show a level of flashiness in his game, impressive court vision, the ability to score from all levels, a quick release, and the ability to run the pick and roll effectively. Additionally, Illawarra relied on Ball heavily (36% assist rate, 27% usage), and he was the focus of opposing defenses. No matter where Ball ends up, it’s hard to imagine he is as relied on for offense on a team with other NBA players.
Still, Ball has to work on his shot selection and really hone his defensive effort and decision making. LaMelo Ball is no longer a teenager who can rely on his father, brothers, and hype tape to get some gig in an international professional league or AAU team, he is in the NBA with the expectations of a high lottery pick.
The Hornets offer a unique development path for Ball. He’ll likely spend considerable time in three guard line-ups alongside Terry Rozier and Devonte Graham. His height will be less advantageous against NBA forwards and off guards, but his speed will supplant whatever lost advantage is had.
Playing alongside these guards will allow the most fluid development of both all three’s scoring and playmaking abilities, as each guard will likely be tasked with an optimal combination of both depending on the night’s given matchup. Additionally, playing for the Hornets – who played with the league’s slowest pace – will force Ball to develop his ability to score in a half court set more efficiently (although I would hope, as a basketball purist, they try use their talented guards to push the pace more).
4. Chicago Bulls-Isaac Okoro
Isaac Okoro showed the makings of a future two-way star at Auburn. As a Freshman, he helped lead the Tigers to an impressive 25-6 record as the team’s 2nd leading scorer and best defender. Okoro’s numbers don’t pop off with 12.9 points, 4.4 rebounds, 2.0 assists, 0.9 steals, and 0.9 blocks per game, but the flashes of a Kawhi Leonard, Andre Iguodala, or Jimmy Butler-type player were there.
Okoro has an NBA ready frame at 6’6” and 225 pounds. He is crafty, patient, and already has high level court vision. The 2 assists per game doesn’t reflect Okoro’s ability to playmake, and the 0.9 steals is a testament to his dedication to playing robust man-to-man defense instead of jumping passing lanes too aggressively. Okoro might be the most switchable defender in the draft with the strength and athleticism to contend against any position in a given play situation.
He has some work to put in. Primarily his shooting. 28.6% from college range threes does not bode well for his NBA long range efficiency, but players have honed their craft with a worse base. The floor spacing should be better in the NBA too, and he already started improving – hitting 34.5% of his threes in SEC play. Additionally, Okoro has to play within himself more. He should not be forcing the issue when driving lanes aren’t there. Most long lasting of his concerns is the fact that he will never have a speed advantage.
Okoro to the Bulls makes a lot of sense. The team is filled with talented players, but players that seem to have gaping holes on at least one side of the ball. There is no reason that a team with scoring talent like Coby White, Zach LaVine, Lauri Markkanen, and Wendell Carter should be 27th in offensive rating, 25th in FG%, 24th in 3P%, 26th in free throw attempts, and 23rd in assists per game. Offensively, Okoro can develop into the glue guy the Bulls need: capable of playmaking and creating better shot opportunities for everyone. Defensively, Okoro and Kris Dunn could form an effective perimeter defensive combination with Okoro being even more switchable – to help the Bulls tackle their issues like being 27th opponent FG%, 28th opp. free throw attempts per game, and the league worst in opponent field goal attempts.
5. Cleveland Cavaliers-Obi Toppin
Toppin stays home in this mock draft and makes the 3 hour trek from Dayton up to Cleveland. After using First Round Picks on Darius Garland and Collin Sexton over the past two years the Cavaliers will try to reload in the frontcourt. No one may have lost more from the cancellation of the NCAA Tournament than Toppin who had led the Flyers to a 29-2 record while winning the National Player of the Year award. Toppin did it all at Dayton scoring on three levels while averaging 20 points 7.5 rebounds and 2.2 assists a game on a uber efficient 63 percent from the field and 39 percent from three point land. Toppin spearheaded his Dayton teams offensive excellence helping them lead the nation in Effective Field Goal Percentage. He thrived in transition sealing smaller defenders with great awareness as a rim runner. Many will question Dayton and Toppin’s competition in the Atlantic 10 conference, but seem to forget that Toppin led his Dayton squad to two blowout wins over Virginia Tech and Georgia in the Maui Invitational and a narrow overtime loss to consensus #1 Kansas where Toppin gave Udoka Azubuike and the Jayhawks everything they could handle in the Tournament Final.
Toppin dominated almost every facet of the offensive game last season as he ranked in the 95th percentile in both transition and the half court via Synergy. With this being said, Toppin did show some lapses on the defensive end throughout the year and needs to play defense with his feet instead of his hands at times. Interestingly enough, Toppin did rank excellent in a short sample size of just 24 possessions in isolation via Synergy. With this being said, Toppin still graded out in only the 37th percentile in NCAA defenders per Synergy due to his inability to guard quicker wings. Toppin got away with this and gambling for steals against weaker competition but will not be so lucky when he makes the move to the NBA from the A-10.
Toppin’s age often gets questioned when talking about his potential as he is much older than many of his draft counterparts as a redshirt sophomore. What the naysayers don’t talk about is that Toppin is still growing into his body. Toppin was just 6’2 headed into his junior year of high school in New York, and underwent a 8 inch growth spurt explaining how a talent like himself ended up at Dayton instead of Duke or Kentucky. Toppin should be able to improve the offensive efficiency of a Cavalier team that ranked in the bottom half of the league in both Field Goal Percentage and 3 Point Percentage. Toppin can also assist with a rebounding void for the Cavaliers as they ranked just 21st in rebounding last year. The Cavaliers can get a steal here in a extra efficient big man who is being slept on due to his age.
6. Atlanta Hawks-Onyeka Okongwu
With Trae Young here to stay in Atlanta, the Hawks need to find a way to build a defense around him that can disguise his defensive woes. Enter Onyeka Okongwu. The 6’9 245 pound forward was a force last year for USC averaging over two and a half blocked shots per game and altering countless others. Okongwu can be the answer on the defensive end for a Hawks team that ranked 27th in defensive rating. Although it was a short sample size, Okongwu graded out as excellent in his 14 plays of isolation against guards via Synergy and shows no reason why he cannot be effective on switching in the pick and roll. He is also a suitable pick and roll partner for Young as he averaged 1.171 Points per possession as the Roll man while shooting 61.6% from the field. Okongwu had plenty of efficiency inside the arc as he ranked in the top 35 in the nation in both effective field goal percentage and true shooting percentage on just over 10 shots per game, but is not the big to stretch it out as he shot only 25 percent from three at USC on only 4 three pointers.
With this being said, Okongwu’s shallow range is not a problem for the Hawks in the long run with John Collins at the Power forward position who shot the 3 at over 40 percent last season. His post arsenal of dropsteps, spins and hook shots was highly effective in college, but will be much harder to execute against NBA length. Additionally, his inability to put the ball on the floor often makes it tough for him to create his own shot. Lastly, his isolation defense may be misleading as he often used his length to recover to alter shots after blow bys. Either way, The Hawks also should love the prospect of a small ball center in Okongwu as they ranked 5th in pace this past year. While Okongwu’s offensive game will need a few years to develop in the association, he and Collins should be able to form a long term solution in the frontcourt for the Hawks for years to come.
7. Detroit Pistons-Killian Hayes
Killian Hayes is somewhat of an unknown in this draft. Some mocks will have him as high as 2nd overall and others as low as the bottom of the lottery. Teams surely remember Frank Ntilikina similarly coming out of the same French league at the same age as a defensively promising guard projected in a similar NBA draft range, but Hayes does seem like the superior prospect given his 12.8 points, 6.2 assists, 2.3 rebounds, and 1.5 steals per game on 45.5% from the field and 39.0% on 4.1 attempts from three (vs. 5.2 points and 1.4 assists per game with 1.6 three point attempts).
The left handed Hayes displayed solid passing vision and touch in play last season, and was both flashy and creative finishing at the rim. As a teenager he has already seemed to hone a stepback jumper, and has both the athleticism and strength to compete in the NBA. His on ball defense was good as well.
Some deficiencies Hayes needs to shore up are his decision making, his confidence, and his off ball defense. Hayes was predictable in playing a pass first style, and his overpassing led to unnecessary turnovers throughout the year. The confidence and off ball defense can come with the right structure in place to guide Hayes’ development.
Detroit might have the worst assets of any team in the NBA. Blake Griffin has officially reached the status of overpaid, oft-injured, and steadily declining. Derrick Rose would be useful if he were coming off the bench for a playoff level team, but not for Detroit and its timeline. NBA Executives know this and didn’t make Detroit a worthwhile offer for him last season. Christian Wood might amount to something, but he’s an unrestricted free agent this offseason and his stats are suspect with Detroit’s lack of winning last season. Sekou Doumbouya has potential but last season was not enough to sell anyone on it. Luke Kennard is the lone bright spot and he is just not enough to change a franchise’s fortunes despite his solid production. The team simply needs the best available prospect truly regardless of position and that is Hayes at #7.
8. New York Knicks-Deni Avdija
Deni Avdija might be even tougher to assess than Hayes, given he played nearly half the minutes (14.3) as Hayes in European play, and was 12th on Maccabi Tel Aviv in minutes per game this season. It should be noted though that he was a fairly consistent piece of the Maccabi rotation – playing 26 of 28 games – on a team that achieved success at 19-9 with many established basketball professionals on the roster.
Avdija, at 6’9”, offers a unique skillset as a combo forward prospect. Reminiscent of a young Danilo Gallinari, Avdija showed good passing ability, court awareness, crafty moves, and a streaky shot. Furthermore, Avdija seemed to have an advanced understanding as a 19 year old on helpside defense as well as good cuts and taking the correct angle in gameplay.
He still needs to work on making his jump shot consistent. In addition, like many young foreign prospects, Avdija will need to strengthen up to compete against NBA threes and fours. Hopefully doing so will improve his rebounding ability and on-ball defense. While he had good straight line speed, Avdija will have to work with questionable lateral quickness.
The New York Knicks can take on Avdija. Tom Thibodeau is known to both entrust young front court players early and hold them defensively accountable, and with R.J. Barrett and Julius Randle handling primary scoring responsibilities, Avdija’s development can be more fluid than forced on this roster. Additionally, New York can be patient with Avdija, as their salary obligations are structured for a competitive 2021 offseason chase after Giannis Antetokounmpo. They also have Barrett, Kevin Knox, Julius Randle, and Bobby Portis at the three and the four for next season to provide internal competition for playing time.
9. Washington Wizards-Devin Vassell
Vassell shot just under 42 percent from outside the arc this past season on just over three and a half attempts. The most impressive part about Vassell’s three point shooting is that he actually shot almost two percent better in ACC play. In addition, Vassell should not have much of a problem getting his shot off with an above average speed release and plenty of length standing at 6’6 with just over a 6’10 wingspan. Vassell used this length to grade out as an excellent Isolation defender this past season ranking in the 91st percentile via Synergy, but only was in isolation on just 18 possessions.
While Vassell’s length is impressive, his body is still developing as he only weighs in at 194 pounds which is actually up from the 180 pounds he weighed during his freshman year. Vassell projects as a NBA spot up shooter on his release and size alone, but needs to improve putting the ball on the deck. Because of this he had a few games this year where he struggled to get going such as a 10 point 3 of 7 performance against Indiana where his team fell to the Hoosiers. He has a soft touch, but needs to improve in the pick and roll at driving past slower bigs where he ranked in the 45th percentile this past year via Synergy. On the defensive side of the ball, his Pick and Roll defense was not a strong suit as he ranked in the 17th percentile via synergy in Pick and Roll Ball Handler Defense. Vassell projects out to start his career as a 3 and D player but needs to live up to the 3rd word in that term. He has the length to do it, but will need more effort, communication, and intensity to follow through.
When drafting in today’s day and age there is always a premium on one thing… Shooting. That premium is raised to a new level when you are the Washington Wizards who will likely lose 42% 3 point shooter Davis Bertans to Free Agency this offseason. Devin Vassell would be an answer to this loss if he can shoot it near the level that he did for the Florida State Seminoles. In addition, Vassell’s length at the guard spot can help the Wizards on the glass who ranked 28th in Total Rebounding. Even if Vassell just begins his career as a 3 and D he can still help an ailing wizards defense who ranked dead last in the league in Defensive Rating. With the size, shooting, and untapped potential, the Wizards can bolster their backup guard situation behind John Wall and Bradley Beal with this pick.
10. Phoenix Suns-Tyrese Haliburton
The Suns come off a scorching bubble where they went undefeated and can attack this draft in a lot of different ways. One piece that we know is here to stay for the Suns is Devin Booker who is signed through 2023-2024. The question is who the other guard alongside him will be at the end of that contract. Ricky Rubio is tied up until 2022, but is aging and will be 32 when his deal expires. The perfect point guard to fill this spot that’s left on the board is Tyrese Haliburton.
Haliburton is an unselfish 6’5 point guard who won’t mind playing with the ball dominant Booker. Haliburton dished it out to his Cyclone teammates averaging over 6.5 assists per game before he fractured his right wrist at the beginning of the Big 12 season. This is a great fit for Haliburton as he can be phased into the rotation at his own pace as he both recovers from injury and gains weight on his 175 pound frame. Haliburton can also help boost the defense in the backcourt with quick hands and nearly 7 foot wingspan that led him to almost two steals per game last year. While he is raw, the things that Haliburton does well like defend, pass and rebound compliment Bookers scoring ability perfectly.
Haliburton does need to work on his slow shot release, but bombed it at 41.9% from three last year on over 5.5 attempts per game. He also needs to improve getting to the free throw line as he only had 71 free throw attempts in his college career. This is probably due to his poor use of his body off of pick and rolls and his inability to get past defenders. Lastly, Haliburton needs to improve shooting off the dribble where he ranked in the 35 percentile via Synergy this past year. Still with a nearly 7 foot wingspan, great defensive instincts, and time to develop, Tyrese Haliburton would be a great pick for the Suns to pair with star Devin Booker.
11. San Antonio Spurs-Josh Green
Josh Green had a solid season for the Arizona Wildcats, but he might not have met the expectations of those who expected the most out of him. Coming to the NCAA season, Green was 13th in the 2019 High School Recruiting Class. He was not a dominant two-way player who cemented a top-ten NBA draft selection as some initially thought he might, but near the end of the lottery is still a nice place for Green who showed some of his own skills and potential in a line-up with fellow NBA prospects Nico Mannion and Zeke Nnaji.
Green averaged 12.0 points, 4.6 rebounds, 2.6 assists, 1.5 steals, and 0.4 blocks in 30.9 minutes per game on 42.4% from the field and 36.1% from three. What he showed in gameplay this season was smooth shot form, athleticism, good size on the wing, the ability to take care of the ball and make good passes, high efficiency in transition (Green finished in the 79th percentile in transition points per possession with 1.190), the ability to finish through contact, and close out quickly to perimeter players defensively.
Things to monitor with Green’s development include seeing how well his game on both ends translates to the NBA level, the level of efficiency he can shoot NBA threes at, improving as a cutter, staying disciplined as a defender by not bailing out his matchups with fouls, and not overhelping defensively. Green’s seemingly lackluster 42nd percentile finish in defensive points per possession with 0.855 is something that can be attributed to a combination of mentioned factors and Green’s responsibility of guarding the opponent’s best offensive player, and is worthwhile of mention.
Green to the Spurs would fill a capable three-and-D void San Antonio has had not just since last season, but really since they traded both Danny Green and Kawhi Leonard away in 2018. The Spurs finishing 28th in three point attempts per game and 26th in opponent three point percentage should raise some red flags – considering the Spurs were for years the beacon of an advanced style of basketball and consistency. The perimeter issues are going to get worse before they get better if and when the Spurs lose Marco Belinelli and Bryn Forbes in free agency this summer barring significant leaps in improvement from former late first round picks Keldon Johnson and Lonnie Walker.
12. Sacramento Kings-Patrick Williams
The Kings come into the draft with a plethora of needs. They lose Bogdan Bogdanovic and the only part of their roster that seems to be set for the next few years is their backcourt in De’Aaron Fox and Buddy Hield. They are at a spot where they can afford to take a shot on a big with a lot of potential in Patrick Williams.
Williams is a Florida State Seminole who only played 22.5 minutes per game this past year. He has a NBA ready body at 6’8 225 pounds and oozes with athleticism. Interestingly enough, Williams actually thrived in the halfcourt on offense, ranking in the 72nd percentile via Synergy versus in transition, where he ranked in the 17th percentile offensively. This bodes well for the Kings as they play at a relatively slower tempo ranking 20th in the league in pace.
Williams has some developing to do on his shot where he only shot the 32% from 3 last season. Fortunately, Williams shot 83% from the line this past year which indicates that he may be able to improve his range in the future. At Florida State, Williams did have a good handle for his size and rarely turned it over off the dribble. Where Williams thrived was on the defensive end where he thrived switching in Pick and Rolls. Williams athleticism helped him rank in the 91st percentile in defending pick and roll ball handlers. With this being said he only faced 19 possessions last year in this role. Williams may be raw, but his pure potential makes it worth it for the Kings to take a shot here.
13. New Orleans Pelicans-R.J. Hampton
Hampton scored the ball solidly last year in Australia in the NBL and averaged almost 9 points for the New Zealand Breakers. He is probably the quickest player with the ball in transition in the entire draft, and has had a full year against professional competition. Hampton is quick in passing lanes and has showed the ability to defend multiple positions with a 6’7 wingspan. This length helped Hampton have multiple outings where he had over 6 rebounds. Hampton also saw improvement in his shot from high school and hit 4 out of 6 3 pointers in a matchup against Cairns. Lastly, Hampton improved in the pick and roll over the course of the season finishing the year in the 61st percentile as a Pick and Roll Ballhandler via Synergy.
Hampton needs to improve his consistency on his shot as he shot under 30 percent from three and under 40 percent from two. More specifically he needs to improve shooting off the dribble as he ranked in just the 7th percentile in All Jump Shots Off the Dribble via Synergy in the NBL. Even though he performed well in the Pick and Roll, Hampton struggled with dumb turnovers that often stemmed from overdribbling.
The Pelicans pick is interesting due to the recent hiring of Stan Van Gundy and the direction that he will take them in. Assuming they don’t stop pushing the ball at an ultra-quick pace which led them to finishing 2nd in the league in pace RJ Hampton is an intriguing pick for them in this spot. Hampton did not perform well on paper in transition ranking in only the 37th percentile via Synergy, but we think this rating is due to often getting out of control while handling the ball. New Orleans can afford to take a shot on a player like Hampton here and runs a system where he can contribute from day 1 with the way that he runs the floor regardless of his shooting.
14. Boston Celtics-Jalen Smith
The Celtics come off a second round playoff loss to the Raptors with a pretty strong core returning of Jaylen Brown, Jayson Tatum, and Kemba Walker. The one thing that has eluded this Celtics organization is offensive production from their frontcourt. The Celtics did look like they found something in former First Round Pick Robert Williams this year, but Williams offensive game still looks like a work in progress as he has little to no range and projects as mostly a shot blocker. An answer to these offensive frontcourt woes would be Jalen “Stix” Smith who dominated Big Ten big men en route to 16 points 11 rebounds and 2.5 blocks per game. Smith also was efficient scoring at 60% inside the arc a statistic that the Celtics struggled with ranking 18th in the league at just 52%.
Smith’s range is still developing, but he has improved immensely as a 3 point shooter over his two years in college, and shot over 40% from three point land in Big 10 play this past year. Smith also had some of his biggest games against his best opponents such as his 20 point 12 rebound effort against a Top 15 Michigan State Spartans. Smith can definitely grow in the Pick and Roll as a decision maker and can become a better passer, but his offensive game has grown mightily since he entered college with the Terrapins.
Defensively, Smith has relatively quick feet for a big and was a effective shot blocker with Maryland, but it is unclear if he will be able to switch to quicker wings and guards in the Pick and Roll. With the Celtics likely losing Enes Kanter and Daniel Theis after next season to free agency, Smith is a suitable replacement who should be ready to play early in his career.
15. Orlando Magic-Aaron Nesmith
It’s tough to imagine a player not making the lottery with the statistics Nesmith had in 2020 as a Sophomore. In an injury-shortened 14 game season with Vanderbilt, Nesmith averaged 23.0 points, 4.9 rebounds, 1.4 steals, and 0.9 blocks in 35.7 minutes per game while shooting 51.2% from the field and 52.2% from three. Those are eye popping numbers – especially in a time when shooting has never come at a greater premium. In a HoopsHype article from November 10th, Nesmith said himself ‘I am 100 percent. I’m back and I couldn’t be happier. No more scans, no more doctors. I’m back, full-go.’ How should the basketball world assess his viability as an NBA prospect?
The confidence from Nesmith on the health front is huge. As long as he is feeling ready, a game like his based on elite marksmanship is less prone to permanent damage from a foot injury than a game based on physical dominance. Additionally, Nesmith is said to generally be a high character player. For any franchise seeking a ‘no-corners-cut’ process to building a championship contender, this is similarly important. From gameplay itself, Nesmith’s threes were not only highly efficient and in high volume (8.2 attempts per game), but many came from NBA range and/or with little space in front of him. The strengths of his game should translate fairly well.
The weaknesses of his game, even pre-injury, are cause for concern. Nesmith played an almost entirely non-conference schedule, and still finished in just the 12th percentile in defensive points per possession. Even worse was his ability to contest shots. Nesmith finished in the 4th percentile in spot up points per possession allowed. Against the best guards and forwards in the world, Nesmith is likely going to need to be hidden for half of game possessions in similar fashion to Isaiah Thomas – assuming Nesmith does find a role on a team. Strengthening up more will help, but Nesmith does not offer much if any length at his listed height of 6’6”.
If Nesmith is going to pan out on any team, it is probably Orlando. Between the combination of relative defensive outperformance Steve Clifford is able to get out of his roster (back to back top ten defensive efficiency finishes with Nikola Vucevic as a defensive anchor and D.J. Augustin and Evan Fournier in the back court) and desperation for spacing and efficient scoring (25th in 3P% and 27th in FG%), the Magic have a built in need for Nesmith’s skillset. Their needs will become even more dire if some combination of D.J. Augustin, Wes Iwundu, Michael Carter-Williams, and Gary Clark leave when they hit free agency this summer.
16. Portland Trail Blazers-Saddiq Bey
Admittedly, Bey is one of our favorite players in this draft. He showed a little bit of everything as a Sophomore for Villanova last season – putting up 16.1 points, 4.7 rebounds, 2.4 assists, 0.8 steals, and 0.4 blocks per game on 47.7% from the field and 45.1% from three on 5.6 threes attempted per game. Bey finished in the 95th percentile in points per possession in a fairly tough Big East Conference. If Bey had some relative level of this production as a one and done, analysts would likely regard Bey as a surefire top ten prospect.
Watching Bey, one sees a 6’8” forward that plays in control, draws contact well, shoots with a quick release, has the ability to shoot coming over off ball screens, and plays solid on-ball defense. Additionally, Bey’s already ridiculous efficiency is likely an understatement of his effectiveness given the high amount of end of shot clock forced attempts Bey had to take. The high floor at a minimum is there for Bey, as he finished in the 98th percentile in catch and shoot points per possession with 1.463.
Some developmental areas for Bey will be translating his style to the NBA level. Bey effectively played a physical high paint style to get scoring opportunities in college, and Bey will have to adjust to a stronger cadre of NBA forwards before he can continue finding success with his arsenal of moves in that area. Additionally, Bey seemed to prefer the half court game from possessions in which he got aggressive. The NBA with a faster style of play may not allow him to be as selective of when he looks to score. Finally, while Bey will never be the quickest NBA forward, his defensive mechanics will have to improve when he gets switched on to the types of quicker guards that burned him in college (17th percentile in defensive points per possession at .926 as pick and roll ball handler).
Coming outside the lottery, for Portland to get a potential starter with this pick makes Bey a no brainer selection. Carmelo Anthony and Wenyen Gabriel are both free agents, and Rodney Hood (player for $6M) and Trevor Ariza (non-guaranteed $13M salary) are both uncertain to return to Rose City. Even with this group of forwards, Portland was abysmal in certain metrics despite the talent in their backcourt; the Blazers finished 26th in opponent three point attempts per game, 29th in opponent 3P%, 24th in opponent free throw attempts, and 27th in opponent rebounds per game. Damian Lillard and C.J. McCollum may not be contributing toward improving on these marks, but Portland was drastically better when they had competent two-way forwards in their line-ups like Mo Harkless and Al-Farouq Aminu. Bey panning out could bring the Blazers closer to the 2019 Western Conference Finals version of their group instead of the pre-Covid 29-37 version we saw last season.
17. Minnesota Timberwolves-Tyler Bey
Tyler Bey is not generating much hype now, but he is positioned well to become a defensive asset early on in his career in the mold of Matisse Thybulle. Bey was critical to Colorado’s success last season – putting up 13.8 points, 9.0 rebounds, 1.5 steals, and 1.0 blocks per game on 53.0% from the field in 29.0 minutes per game. Bey made back-to-back All-Pac-12 teams in 2019 and 2020 with 2019 being a year in which he won the conference’s Most Improved Player award, and this year being a season in which he was given the accolade of Conference Defensive Player of the Year.
Bey showed both the ability and the tools to be able to guard all five positions at points last season. With the ball in his hands, Bey has good quick post moves, and draws fouls well (5.9 free throw attempts per game). Bey has the size of a forward and was incredible when switched onto guards – finishing in the 93rd percentile in defensive points per possession (0.444) in pick and roll sets on the ball handler. His length defending perimeter players should be able to translate effectively as long as he maintains the ability to match up with lateral speed and quickness.
If he develops his three point shot to an NBA average level, he will be highly playable in any line up. Right now, however, he only took one attempt per game as a collegiate Junior. Not the best developmental signal. Additionally, Bey will not be playing out of the paint as he did so frequently for Colorado. He’ll need to make sure he maintains his effectiveness playing away from the basket. Bey’s passing will need to improve – his assist to turnover ratio of 0.6 is not ideal for an upperclassman, and he telegraphed moves frequently last season.
Bey and the Timberwolves both need each other. Getting Anthony Edwards should help defensively in the long term, but Minnesota was putrid on the less glamorous end last season. Some Timberwolves metrics include 25th in opponent field goal percentage, 20th in opponent three point percentage, 26th in opponent three point attempts, and 24th in defensive free throws to field goal attempts. Even scarier for Wolves fans are that these metrics came with 48 games of Robert Covington. One would be bold to believe that the Karl Towns D’Angelo Russell duo are going to improve on their defensive abilities going into season six now. Bey has the opportunity here to be a valuable piece of the line-up for his defensive versatility alone even if his offensive game is lackluster against NBA competition.
18. Dallas Mavericks-Jah’mius Ramsey
Luka Doncic, Kristaps Porzingis, Tim Hardaway… the Dallas Mavericks had no trouble scoring the ball this season as they finished with top offensive rating in the league at 116.7. What the Mavericks did have trouble doing was defending as they finished 18th in defensive rating while giving up over 110 points in all six of their playoff games against the Clippers.
What better way to start fixing this than to get a Chris Beard coached point guard in the first round in J’ahmius Ramsey. Ramsey started all 27th games for Beard’s Tech team that finished 9th in the nation in defensive rating. He finished second for the Red Raiders in Defensive Win Shares as a Freshman on a veteran team with multiple graduate transfers. Ramsey also showed active hands tying for the team lead in steals with just over a steal per game. While Ramsey thrived on the defensive end, he did have trouble getting going offensively at times. He often struggled passing the ball (1.1 Ast/TO ratio) and ranked in just the 33rd percentile as the Pick and Roll Ball Handler via Synergy. Ramsey did thrive in the catch and shoot offensively as he ranked in the 91st percentile in the catch and shoot via Synergy.
With these percentages, a lack of prowess as a passer in his freshman year, and a deadly stepback, he may be better suited to begin his career as a shooting guard instead of a point. It is also evident that Ramsey’s offensive game needs some work in his success on drives to the left and right. He ranked in the 98th percentile driving left, but only the 24th percentile driving right via Synergy. Ramsey definitely needs to polish his offensive game, but his defensive prowess can have a instant impact on a Dallas team that may lose both Trey Burke and JJ Barea in free agency this winter.
19. Brooklyn Nets-Aleksej Pokusevski
Aleksej Pokusevski is as swing for the fences as prospects come. Effective 7’0” point forwards who can dominate games on a full-court level as a primary scoring option and ball handler have come arguably twice in NBA history (Kevin Durant, Giannis Antetokounmpo). In the best case scenario – and these words do not come lightly – Pokusevski has the tools and talent to be that type of player. The problem is that both his floor and the most likely outcome of his career looks a lot more like that of Dragan Bender or Nikoloz Tskitishvili.
On Olympiacos B, Pokusevski averaged 10.8 points, 7.9 rebounds, 3.1 assists, 1.8 blocks, and 1.3 steals per game on 40.4% from the field as a 7’0” 200 pound 18 year old. He has flashy moves, showed body control, hit threes with some streakiness, and did so in the same Greek league at the same age Giannis averaged 9.5 points, 5.0 rebounds, 1.4 assists, 1.0 blocks, and 0.7 steals per game on 46.4% from the field. The statistical comparison is, at a minimum, valid.
The difference between these two, however, is that Giannis is one of if not the hardest workers in the NBA, and Pokusevski makes people question whether he would even want to play basketball professionally with the lack of effort he has on the court at times. This might be an exaggeration, but Pokusevski might be the only player I can definitively say I’ve seen on multiple possessions truly give up on a play defensively while still being in front of or alongside his man. Cliches are cliches for a reason, and one cannot teach effort. Less, but still fundamental problems for Pokusevski include lacking NBA level strength, making bad decisions, and poor court awareness.
The Nets are as win-now as they come. Brooklyn has $140 million in salary obligations next season before they even attempt to re-sign Joe Harris (which by all indications they will). Taking on a developing rookie for a mid first round selection salary is antithetical to Brooklyn’s timeline. Taking Pokusevski as a draft and stash allows for Pokusevski to become more NBA ready while the Nets forego the salary obligation immediately, while they get one of the highest potential guys in the draft in the back half of the first round.
20. Miami Heat-Precious Achiuwa
The Miami Heat fell just short in an NBA Finals where they were often outmuscled by the LA Lakers size and lost the rebounding battle by at least 5 rebounds each game. The Heat will also likely lose 7 footer Meyers Leonard and 6’6 jumping jack Derrick Jones to free agency. Enter Precious Achiuwa. Achiuwa was the AAC player of the year this past year averaging 15.8 points 10.8 rebounds and 1 assist per game. Achiuwa was also reasonably efficient at 53% True Shooting for his over 27 percent usage. On the defensive end, Achiuwa did a good job both blocking (1.9 BPG) and altering shots in route to finishing in the 83rd percentile as a defender last year via Synergy. He also finished with 2.9 Defensive Win Shares which ranks 3rd ever American Athletic Conference history.
Achiuwa averaged 3 offensive boards a game which can definitely help bolster a Heat unit that ranked 29th in offensive rebounding last season with under 9 offensive rebounds a game. In addition, Achiuwa seems to be a good fit for the strong team defense identity for Miami as he had extremely active hands for a big with over a steal a game while adding almost two blocks per game. Achiuwa does have one active weakness on defense in switching on the Pick and Roll where he graded out in the 1st percentile guarding Pick and Roll ballhandlers via Synergy. Achiuwa’s offensive game is still developing but he is a athletic finisher who isn’t afraid to step outside the arc to knock one down. He only shot 32.5% from three last year but has a consistent form and should improve as a shooter as time goes on. He also needs to improve from the line as he shot just under 60 percent last season.
One stat that is misleading about Achiuwa was his one assist per game. His vision needs to improve, but his role on the team did not cater to large assist numbers and it wouldn’t surprise us if he became a very good passing big in the NBA as defenses have less focus on him. The Heat would be more than pleased to see Achiuwa drop to them as he can contribute on the glass from day 1 as his offensive game continues to evolve.
21. Philadelphia 76ers-Cole Anthony
The Philadelphia 76ers come into this draft with a lot of uncertainty with a new Head Coach in Doc Rivers and new Team President in Daryl Morey. The roster for the 76ers should be eerily similar to last years team that was swept at the hands of the Boston Celtics, and are only set to lose Alec Burks and Raul Neto to free agency who accounted for just over 30 minutes a night in the backcourt. Cole Anthony seems to be a worthy replacement option at this point in the draft for those two guys.
Anthony entered North Carolina as the number 2 recruit in the ESPN top 100, but was hobbled by knee injuries that cost him about a third of his freshman season. Anthony averaged over 18 points a game on just 38 percent shooting in his freshman year. While the efficiency numbers are nothing to write home about, Anthony had to force shots on a UNC team that was one of their least talented in the Roy Williams era. Still Anthony had some efficient games against solid ACC opponents like a 25 point effort on 61% from the field against Syracuse. This scoring potential could be a huge asset to a Philly Bench that ranked 27th in bench scoring at just over 30 points per game.
Anthony’s efficiency hasn’t been the only thing that has been questioned. His stature at only 6’3 as a combo guard has been another talking point against him. This should not effect him as much as the naysayers think as he graded out as a solid isolation defender against bigger guards and wings in the 63rd percentile via Synergy and rebounded as well as any guard in the draft averaging almost 6 rebounds per game. Anthony also has a crafty repertoire of step backs and jump steps that allow him to score in many ways. While he still has a lot to learn in the shot selection department, Cole Anthony’s talent makes him worth the risk for Philly in this spot as he can hopefully deliver the bench scoring punch Philly most desperately needs.
22. Denver Nuggets-Cassius Stanley
Cassius Stanley was solid for Duke this season. The Blue Devils did not have the same level of national attention as the R.J. Barrett / Zion Williamson / Cam Reddish team, and the group this year with Stanley, Tre Jones, Vernon Carey, and Matthew Hurt among others played well. Stanley delivered 12.6 points, 4.9 rebounds, 0.7 steals, and 0.7 blocks in 27.4 minutes per game while shooting 47.4% from the field and 36.0% from three on 3.0 attempts per game. Even on this talented roster, Coach Krzyzewski seemed apt to run many plays for Stanley including at pivotal moments in close games.
Stanley ranked both in the 85th percentile in offensive points per possession (1.003) and the 84th percentile in defensive points per possession (0.714). On offense, Stanley had a smooth shot from mid range and long range, was comfortable taking defenders into the post and off the dribble, and finished plays both above the rim and through contact. Defensively, Stanley finished in an elite 91st percentile as a pick and roll defender with just 0.469 points per possession allowed, and he showed knowledge of landing zones when contesting shots.
One item Stanley needs to work on is his decision making. Stanley finished with a season with an assist / turnover ratio of 0.5, and has a habit of over dribbling and forcing drives. He needs to get better at using his body to get better angles at the rim – he left himself exposed to blockers too often in college and this issue will only hinder him more if he does not adjust accordingly. Defensively, Stanley’s length will be a problem on shot contests, but his vertical will help with the issue. He also needs to improve at fighting through screens as NBA guards will burn him if he does not.
Denver offers a unique fit in that Stanley can come in as a specialist who develops into a generalist (all-around good NBA player) by nature of Nuggets personnel. Stanley’s high percentage of attempts at the rim, at the free throw line (3.6 per game), and from three are needed for a team that finished 26th in three point attempts, 27th in free throw attempts, and 28th in free throw rate. Michael Porter Jr.’s presumably expanded role for next season will help, but it will not be enough to fully overcome the finesse styles of Nikola Jokic and Jamal Murray. Stanley’s development will not come rushed, as even before free agency or re-signing Torrey Craig, the Nuggets still have Gary Harris, Will Barton, and Porter Jr. to play the wing positions.
23.Utah Jazz-Jaden Mcdaniels
Let’s not beat around the bush here – Jaden McDaniels hurt his draft stock substantially this year. He came into the 2020 season as his High School Class’ 7th highest rated prospect with a build that screamed two-way NBA impact player, and disappointed at Washington in his Freshman season. The Huskies went 5-13 in the Pac-12, and McDaniels was a net negative on both ends by both metrics and the eye test.
The averages weren’t terrible: 13.0 points, 5.8 rebounds, 2.1 assists, 1.4 blocks, and 0.8 steals per game on 40.5% shooting and 33.9% from three. For the low moments of the season, McDaniels showed good length, smart defensive instincts, the ability to hit tough shots, good athleticism, and certain play types in which he thrived. For example, McDaniels finished in the 77th percentile as a pick and roll ball handler with 0.863 points per possession. On the other end of the court, McDaniels finished in the 93rd percentile in points per possession allowed during man defense sets. Problem is, they only played in man 25.1% of the time.
McDaniels has a long way to go with his game. He finished in just the 40th percentile in points per possession (.828) and the 27th percentile in defensive points per possession (.906) per Synergy. McDaniels took many ill advised shots – including some awful transition threes. He needs to bulk up considerably if he is to hold his own against the elite athletes of the NBA, and he needs to make better decisions on passes – he finished with a 0.6 assist to turnover ratio and was in just the 33rd percentile in points per possession and assist. Given his 2.1 assists per game as a forward, one would expect this to be higher.
Perhaps Quin Snyder can get some better production out of McDaniels. Utah has been a top-seven defensive team under Snyder for every season in the last 5 years except this one, and Donovan Mitchell – Rudy Gobert chemistry issues are more to blame than any flaw in Snyder’s defensive scheming. Utah needs a swing for the fences pick here, and McDaniels arguably has the most raw talent and physical tools of any prospect left. McDaniels fits the bill positionally as a forward capable of getting assists with two score first guards (Mike Conley, Mitchell) in the line-up and with Joe Ingles and Bojan Bogdanovic both in their thirties now. Otherwise, they aren’t particularly lacking in any area, but the defensive slip from 2nd best in 2019 to 13th in 2020 can also be addressed with McDaniels’ tools.
24. Milwaukee Bucks-Desmond Bane
The Bucks enter the offseason off a disappointing playoff loss at the hands of the Miami Heat where they shot just 32.7% from beyond the arc. Additionally, the Bucks likely could lose Kyle Korver, Pat Connaughton, and Sterling Brown to free agency who accounted for most of their bench shooting and almost 8 attempts from 3 point range a game.
Desmond Bane can be a major answer to this void. Bane led the Big 12 in both three pointers made at almost 3 per game and three point percentage at over 44%. Bane did not do this as just a spot up shooter as he sported a usage percentage of almost 25% while being blanketed by multiple defenders. In addition, Bane graded out as excellent in the 92nd percentile of jump shots off the dribble via Synergy. Bane also has NBA ready size to be a 3 and D player in the NBA at 6’6 215 pounds.
Question marks have risen about Bane’s wingspan as it is reported to be 6’4 which is less than his height. Teams may also shy away from taking Bane due to his age as he played four years at TCU and is much older than many of his draft counterparts. This second point makes Bane even a better fit for the Bucks as he will be ready to play Day 1 in Milwaukee’s accelerated timeline as they try to make a Finals push to keep Giannis. Other than Bane’s wingspan doubts he proved to be a effective defender at TCU averaging a steal and a half a game while collecting 1.9 Defensive Win Shares ranking second for the Horned Frogs. Bane also chipped in 6.3 rebounds and 3.9 assists and was capable as both a rebounder and passer. It is uncertain where exactly Desmond Bane will go in this upcoming draft with the lack of team workouts and unconventional timeline, but if he were to fall to the Bucks he could make an immediate impact.
25. Oklahoma City Thunder-Leandro Bolmaro
Leandro Bolmaro is one of the few draft prospects who has already played in a 2020-21 season. Unfortunately for Bolmaro, it is hurting him. After averaging 8.0 points, 2.5 assists, 1.6 rebounds, and 1.2 steals in 17.2 minutes per game last season, Bolmaro has struggled so far in this season with 3.0 points per game and the other averages down across the board as he’s shooting just 25.7% from the field. Still just 20 years old with half his season left, hopefully Bolmaro can pick back up, but these 2021 games might be hurting his draft stock.
Until this year, Bolmaro was improving on his efficiency, and he showcased potential to be a do-it-all type forward. He handles the ball well, is shifty, can score off the dribble, plays in the most competitive league outside the NBA, and can play both on and off the ball. His transition game was encouraging finishing 60% of his field goals there last season.
Bolmaro is going to need to keep improving as a shooter, work on his decision making, and finish better at the rim. If he is already struggling for Barca, then the NBA competition won’t fare well for him either. He is going to need to regain his confidence.
Oklahoma City is in an interesting position, as they won plenty of games last season with a 44-28 record, but have a bevy of incoming draft assets. Drafting an international stash prospect here opens up more roster flexibility as they recalibrate in coming years. Chris Paul, Dennis Schroeder, and Danilo Gallinari did not match up with the timeline of this otherwise young and getting younger roster. Bolmaro also fits alongside Shai Gilgeous Alexander well positionally, as the two can take turns playing on the ball as neither is particularly ball dominant.
26. Boston Celtics-Nico Mannion
With a plethora of three first round picks, Brad Wanamaker possibly leaving in free agency, and Kemba Walker getting up in age it may be time for the Celtics to look for the Point Guard of the future. Mannion is anything but a surefire pick and sported performances ranging from a 21 point performance against Illinois on 8 of 14 shooting to a 5 point performance against UCLA where he went 2 of 14. Mannion’s inconsistencies stood out statistically as he shot just 39% from the field and 33% percent from Three Point Range.
With this being said, Mannion does have phenomenal shooting form and graded out as very good in the Pick and Roll in the 67th percentile via Synergy. Regardless, Mannion made the 2019-2020 All Pac 12 Team which can be partially credited to the advanced vision that he showed as a passer. Mannion averaged over five assists per game, but did cough it up often as he had over two and a half turnovers as well. Many of these turnovers were aggressive turnovers as Mannion often added too much flare or tried to do too much. Mannion’s athleticism also does not do him any favors as he is not a above the rim player. Defensively, this did not seem to greatly impact Mannion as he graded out in the 87th percentile of defenders via Synergy. In this case, this number may be slightly misleading as he struggled mightily in some aspects defensively such as ranking in the 28th percentile in Isolation via Synergy. Still Mannion’s craftiness and potential is worth a risk for a team in the 20-40 range and the Celtics are the team to do it due to their depth. Mannion can learn at his own pace in their system and have a more than capable mentor in Kemba Walker. The Celtics also surprisingly ranked 25th in the league in assists, a stat that Mannion can impact. If Mannion can learn to rein himself in at times and make better decisions, his textbook form and natural vision can allow him to play a long time in this league.
27. New York Knicks-Grant Riller
Grant Riller is best kept secret to non-college basketball watching NBA fans. The College of Charleston product scored at all three levels during his college career while improving as a rebounder, defender, and passer each year. Riller was efficient with a true shooting percentage of 60.9% while carrying the offensive load for Charleston with 33.6% usage rate. Riller still showed active hands on the defensive end as well with a 2.8% steal percentage. The only players since 2008 to put up such numbers in those three categories (STL%, USG%, and TS%) were Steph Curry, Damian Lilliard, and James Harden. Riller excelled in the Pick and Roll on offense ranking in the 97th percentile via Synergy.
A troubling statistic offensively is that Riller finisher in just the 21st percentile off screens, but that statistic only says so much as he had just 28 possessions all season in that situation. One may imagine that Riller only succeeded off the dribble because of his high usage, but Riller thrived in the catch and shoot where he finished in the 85th percentile via Synergy. Many will question Rillers level of competition as the CAA is no juggernaut, but some of Rillers best performances have come against quality opponents such as his 9 of 15 29 point effort in a win against a Providence Team that was safely in the tournament field last year. On the other end of the court Riller has some issues, but many can be fixable without lapses in attention to detail and effort. Riller often got lost off the ball and at times his smaller stature failed him against bigger guards, but he still graded out in the 76th percentile defending Pick and Roll Ballhandlers via Synergy. With a major logjam in the frontcourt and no clear long term solutions at the guard positions besides possibly RJ Barrett, this is a risk in Riller that the Knicks should take.
28. Oklahoma City Thunder-Tyrell Terry
Tyrell Terry shot up mock boards over the course of the season. The talent was not to be doubted – Terry was highly recruited coming out of high school (88th in the 2019 class), but he came on strong for Stanford. Terry averaged 14.6 points, 4.5 rebounds, 3.2 assists, and 1.4 steals in 32.6 minutes per game as a Freshman while shooting 44.1% from the field and 40.8% on 4.9 attempts per game from three.
The size (6’1” 160 pounds) was concerning coming in and will be going to the NBA, but smaller players have found success with less of a lethal three point shot. In addition to the shot which also has a quick set and release, Terry is able to create nice driving lanes for himself through the tightness a defense will use to guard him. Terry can come over off ball screens, has great court vision that he uses to make good passes, and can be highly effective coming off an on ball screen too.
The weaknesses, however, are concerning. Terry was not good enough at finishing inside the paint in college to suggest he’ll even be a viable threat there in the NBA. He had a problematic tendency to disappear in big games when the Cardinal needed him the most; Terry had 6 points on 1-6 shooting vs. Cal, 6 points on 2-9 shooting vs. Oregon, and 3 points on 1-5 shooting vs. Arizona. Additionally, he shot 10% higher from the field at home – suggesting consistency issues. Even though he likely had the range for those shots, Terry sometimes showed little court awareness and would catch a ball positioned out of bounds. Defensively, Terry provided little resistance against guards in college, suggesting he’ll be a massive liability on that end in the NBA.
As such, Terry needs a team where defenders in the rest of the line-up are good enough to cover his own deficiencies, as the Cardinal (top-12 defense) had this season. Insert Oklahoma City. OKC finished 7th in Defensive Rating at 108.8. The star of this defense also lies in the backcourt with Shai Gilgeous Alexander who led Oklahoma City in Defensive Win Shares at 3 last season which can help mask Terry as he develops. Offensively, OKC finished just 27th in 3 Pointers Made and 17th in 3 Point percentage last season. In addition, the Thunder likely lose Danilo Gallinari who accounted for almost 3 3 Pointers a game and shot over 40% beyond the arc. Terry can slide into a void opened by the likely departures of Paul, Gilgeous-Alexander, and Gallinari to contribute right away.
29. Toronto Raptors-Theo Maledon
Theo Maledon has been overshadowed by Killian Hayes, as it is rare we have seen two teenage French point guard prospects projected to go in the first round of the same NBA draft, but Hayes showed the potential to be an effective NBA game manager in Europe last season. He averaged 7.4 points, 3.1 assists, and 1.8 rebounds in just 17.7 minutes per game while shooting 45.6% from the field and 36.7% from three.
Maledon has good court vision, and made many great passes to set his teammates up throughout the year. He showed the ability to make the right plays in translatable set types including the pick and roll as well as hitting catch and shoot threes. Maledon displayed a keen sense of control for a 19 year old, and could play both in half court and in transition. Off the ball, Maledon had good defensive instincts, lateral quickness, and footwork.
Maledon has some work to do as a three level player. Even though NBA teams are going less to the mid range, Maledon could improve his inbetween game. Additionally, Maledon needs to get stronger, and improve instinctually how he defends on the ball.
Toronto doesn’t really need Maledon right now. They are an elite team by most metrics, but there are some areas for improvement. On a basic level, they were 20th in field goal percentage last season, and Maledon could help set up some easy looks. For the future, however, nearly this entire team is coming off the books in the next two seasons. This offseason, Marc Gasol, Serge Ibaka, Fred VanVleet, Rondae Hollis Jefferson, Malcolm Miller, and Chris Boucher are off the books. In 2021, Stanley Johnson (player option), O.G. Anunoby, Patrick McCaw, and Kyle Lowry come off. Maledon offers flexibility as a potential draft and stash player, and some youth at point guard, as Lowry (33) won’t be as effective as he has been forever.
30. Boston Celtics-Jordan Nwora
In our Mock Draft Boston has now taken Nico Mannion and Jalen Smith. While this covers many of their bench needs, the Boston bench is still missing some shooting as they ranked 24th in bench Three Point Shooting last year at just 32.3%. Jordan Nwora could be a major answer to this problem. Nwora shot over 40% from three on over six attempts per game last year for Louisville. While his decision making could improve as he averaged almost twice as many turnovers as assists this past year he will not be asked to do nearly as much alongside Kemba Walker, Jaylen Brown, and Jayson Tatum who all averaged over 15 shot attempts per game last season.
Nwora’s length at 6’7 225 pounds helped him rank in the top 20 in the nation in defensive rating this past year. Nwora can also help a average Boston rebounding squad who ranked 11th this past year on the boards as he averaged just under 8 rebounds this past year. Nwora did struggle in isolation, ranking in just the 16th percentile via synergy, but will not need to score in isolation on this roster. All in all, Nwora should project as a excellent 3 and D player for this Celtics team if they choose to pick him.
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